Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2015…ac26 crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%244W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$4
world 3% $0
other 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +7.1% -3.1% 82% 72% -5.2%
≤30d 174 +4.6% -5.4% 78% 76% -5.4%
≤90d 313 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 67% -8.4%
all 313 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 67% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 67% -8.4%
10% -17.1% 56% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 19% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses244 / 69
Open positions21
Markets (closed)313 / 334
History coverage46d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 59m
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $1 9h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 10h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 10h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 11h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 13h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 13h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 14h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.23 · official $29.23 (match) · 606 history records