Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2015…69fd
sports · 91 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 61
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$50
14 days−$70
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Boston Red Sox 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Athletics 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Philadelphia Phillies 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $9 −$7 -79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $11 −$4 -35%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$4 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $4 −$2 -57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $3 +$4 +129%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $9 −$8 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $8 +$14 +168%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $9 −$7 -78%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $18 +$8 +43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 −$4 -64%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $4 −$1 -34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $4 −$3 -90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$3 +84%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $7 +$4 +60%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $3 +$24 +734%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $4 +$11 +246%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $7 −$1 -10%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $3 +$16 +468%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 1¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 1¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $0 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $0 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 0¢ $0 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 3¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 18¢ $4 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 14¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 9¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 2¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 6¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 47¢ $0 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 47¢ $6 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 16¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 6¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 13¢ $2 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 12¢ $2 24h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 19¢ $2 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 24¢ $2 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 56¢ $4 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 30¢ $2 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 6¢ $1 46h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 18¢ $6 47h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 18¢ $1 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $10 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 6¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 14¢ $4 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 8¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -13.1% -21.4% 34% 34% -27.9%
≤30d 87 +25.5% +13.6% 34% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 91 +20.0% +8.6% 33% 32% -19.0%
all 91 +20.0% +8.6% 33% 32% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 32% -19.0%
10% -1.8% 30% -26.7%
15% -11.3% 27% -33.8%
20% -20.0% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records