trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $170 | $135 | −$35 (-21%) |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $98 | $98 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $110 | $76 | −$33 (-31%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $9 | −$41 (-82%) |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $110 | $0 | −$110 (-100%) |
| Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $103 | $0 | −$103 (-100%) |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $58 | $0 | −$58 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $51 | −$44 | -86% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $101 | +$235 | +233% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $350 | +$189 | +54% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $374 | −$374 | -100% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | May 18 | $269 | +$453 | +169% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Apr 23 | $348 | −$82 | -24% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 15 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Apr 11 | $400 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 09 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | Apr 07 | $304 | +$203 | +67% |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 02 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 02 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 30 | $401 | −$103 | -26% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 03 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Dec 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? | Dec 14 | $28 | +$28 | +100% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e | Dec 09 | $36 | −$6 | -17% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +67.0% | +51.1% | 67% | 67% | +59.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +53.9% | +39.3% | 60% | 60% | +26.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -14.2% | -22.4% | 38% | 31% | -0.1% |
| all | 17 | -17.8% | -25.6% | 35% | 29% | -1.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.6% | 29% | -1.8% |
| 10% | -32.7% | 29% | -11.2% |
| 15% | -39.2% | 29% | -19.8% |
| 20% | -45.2% | 29% | -27.7% |