Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2014…0f35 world 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$1
politics 8% $0
other 6% −$2
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 11 -1.0% -10.5% 36% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -1.0% -10.5% 36% 9% -9.3%
all 24 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage455d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $9 −$2 -17%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $60 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -8%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 14m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $35 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $24 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $5 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $32 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $23 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $8 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $2 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $21 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $17 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $17 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records