Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2014…caef other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-13%) realized −$102 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$240
sports 18% +$33
tech 5% −$2
world 5% −$22
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +42.7% +29.1% 23% 23% -42.3%
≤30d 13 +42.7% +29.1% 23% 23% -42.3%
≤90d 26 +8.8% -1.6% 35% 27% -30.1%
all 36 +2.0% -7.7% 39% 33% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 33% -29.4%
10% -16.6% 25% -36.2%
15% -24.6% 11% -42.4%
20% -32.0% 8% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage138d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 24¢ $67 $38 −$29 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $85 −$16 -19%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$51 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$26 +1403%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $29 −$26 -92%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $49 −$2 -3%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $34 +$22 +64%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $116 +$10 +8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $34 +$46 +134%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $26 +$8 +32%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 18 $2 $0 -2%
FC Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? Feb 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Yeah" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog Feb 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 09 $15 +$2 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 07 $11 −$6 -54%
Will Trump say "Dog" or "Doggy" this week? (February 1) Jan 31 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $69 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $69 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $82 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $38 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $17 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 52d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 52d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 52d
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 52d
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 52d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 99¢ $22 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 98¢ $22 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.32 · official $38.32 (match) · 89 history records