Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2011…845b weather 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$579 (+10%) realized +$581 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate77%63W / 19L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$13
14 days+$170
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$518
world 1% +$27
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 8% -8.6%
≤30d 78 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 21% -0.8%
≤90d 82 -1.9% -11.2% 77% 22% -0.7%
all 82 -1.9% -11.2% 77% 22% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 22% -0.7%
10% -19.7% 15% -10.2%
15% -27.5% 9% -18.9%
20% -34.6% 6% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses63 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage58d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 28? Jun 27 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27? Jun 26 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26? Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $36 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $206 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $138 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $56 −$13 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23? Jun 23 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $584 +$39 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? Jun 19 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 +$48 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $146 +$46 +31%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $205 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $212 +$7 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$8 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.55 · official $125.55 (match) · 422 history records