Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x200f…05bb other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$16
politics 39% −$3
economics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.2% +7.0% 25% 25% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 29% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +10.6% +0.1% 55% 18% -9.0%
all 41 +2.9% -6.9% 39% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 5% -9.3%
10% -15.8% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage395d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 18 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $945 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$11 +73%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? Jun 09 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 15? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Apr 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? Feb 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jan 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $90 December 1-7? Jan 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Jan 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5300 August 11–17? Sep 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Lorient win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Aug 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 US Open? Jul 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jun 26 $32 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 27 $330 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30? May 27 $330 $0 -0%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? May 27 $340 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $310 $0 -0%
Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $322 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 19 $326 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 19 $335 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $102 1h
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $951 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $952 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $948 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $987 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 2d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 69¢ $18 21d
Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $13 56d
Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $14 56d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 66d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 66d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 83d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 83d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 100d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $11 100d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 141d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja SELL No 100¢ $25 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 156d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja BUY No 100¢ $10 156d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja BUY No 100¢ $15 156d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $16 162d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $6 162d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $10 162d
Will Solana dip to $90 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $7 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.80 · official $112.80 (match) · 107 history records