Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

20 0x200e…38b3 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$4,055 (+26%) realized +$645 · open +$3,410

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$718per market

Trades / day18.2pace

Fees−$177est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$11,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+19.3%	+8.0%	60%	55%	+36.3%
≤30d	20	+19.3%	+8.0%	60%	55%	+36.3%
≤90d	20	+19.3%	+8.0%	60%	55%	+36.3%
all	20	+19.3%	+8.0%	60%	55%	+36.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.0%	55%	+36.3%
10%	-2.4%	55%	+23.2%
15%	-11.8%	50%	+11.3%
20%	-20.4%	45%	+0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$904) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +28% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$526 vs −$297 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$11,237

Realized+$645

Unrealized+$3,410

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$177

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$718

Trades / day18.2

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	34¢	100¢	$3,820	$11,230	+$7,410 (+194%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$4,007	$7	−$4,000 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$2,404	+$3,100	+129%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$919	−$904	-98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$1,041	+$1,396	+134%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$2	$0	+0%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$1,938	+$1,807	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 26	$2	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 26	$1	+$1	+76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1,467	−$1,467	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 26	$4	−$1	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 26	$2	+$2	+104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 26	$2	+$2	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$3	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 26	$1	+$1	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 26	$2	+$1	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 25	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 25	$2	$0	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 25	$1	−$1	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 25	$2	+$1	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 25	$3	+$3	+87%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	57m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$872	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2,188	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2,652	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$213	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$258	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$384	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$465	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	27¢	$414	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$520	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	11¢	$1	4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$87	5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$350	5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$87	5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$699	5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$961	5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$218	5h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Under	18¢	$5	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$10	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$426	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$391	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$87	2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$2	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	42¢	$1,041	3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	51¢	$1,938	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$2	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$1	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,237.20 · official $11,237.20 (match) · 93 history records