Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x200e…7d37 weather 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,234 (+3%) realized +$6,432 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%389W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day272.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,821
other 0% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 1% -8.7%
≤30d 404 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 404 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 2% -8.7%
all 404 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 2% -8.7%
10% -16.9% 1% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$626) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.23 per $1 lost it wins $49.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6,432
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses389 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)404 / 404
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$501
Trades / day272.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 91¢ 1¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $438 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $825 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $87 +$27 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2,621 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $482 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $573 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $661 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $745 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $528 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,985 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,249 +$71 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $133 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1,017 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,970 +$24 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,605 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $349 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $274 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,970 +$24 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2,217 +$18 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $464 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $533 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 28m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $14 28m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $31 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 29m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $14 30m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $38 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $628 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $626 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $67 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 3500 history records