Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

20 0x2009…678c other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$303 (+19%) realized +$292 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$80per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$52

14 days+$103

30 days+$227

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-5.3%	-14.3%	70%	50%	-4.6%
≤30d	18	+28.6%	+16.4%	56%	44%	+6.0%
≤90d	18	+28.6%	+16.4%	56%	44%	+6.0%
all	19	+30.8%	+18.4%	58%	47%	+8.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.4%	47%	+8.2%
10%	+7.0%	32%	-2.2%
15%	-3.3%	32%	-11.6%
20%	-12.8%	21%	-20.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +71% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage

Net worth$211

Realized+$292

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage699d

Avg bet$80

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?	No	76¢	80¢	$200	$211	+$11 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$103	−$38	-37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Jun 26	$208	+$94	+45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$100	+$5	+5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$50	+$8	+16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$201	+$25	+12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$22	+44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$201	+$37	+18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	Jun 17	$52	$0	-1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	Jun 17	$11	−$6	-57%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	Jun 17	$21	−$7	-32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?	Jun 17	$36	+$27	+74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?	Jun 03	$21	−$20	-94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3?	Jun 03	$2	−$2	-94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Jun 03	$19	+$145	+765%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 14	$65	+$45	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?	BUY No	76¢	$203	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$65	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL No	44¢	$75	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY No	66¢	$51	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY No	49¢	$52	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	95¢	$105	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	88¢	$50	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	93¢	$169	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	84¢	$201	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	SELL No	52¢	$51	11d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	BUY No	49¢	$52	11d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	SELL Yes	2¢	$5	11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	SELL Yes	16¢	$14	11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?	SELL No	98¢	$63	11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL No	84¢	$169	11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	BUY Yes	21¢	$21	20d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$11	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL No	59¢	$57	20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?	BUY No	55¢	$36	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.53 · official $210.53 (match) · 50 history records