Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2003…9c15
weather · 57 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$148 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open −$105
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage41d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $180 $75 −$105 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $29 +$3 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $106 +$45 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$1 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17? May 19 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on May 7? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 10? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 6? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 7? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? May 07 $10 +$8 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5? May 05 $108 −$78 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? May 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5? May 05 $1 +$8 +793%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 03 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% −$105
weather 30% −$87
world 29% +$49
crypto 7% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $182 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL No 90¢ $32 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $151 19d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 19d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May BUY Yes 36¢ $2 20d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May BUY Yes 37¢ $2 20d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 92¢ $5 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 85¢ $5 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 85¢ $19 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 76¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 27d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 16% -0.4%
≤90d 56 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 25% -20.1%
all 56 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 25% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 25% -20.1%
10% -33.8% 18% -27.7%
15% -40.2% 16% -34.7%
20% -46.1% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.75 · official $74.75 (match) · 134 history records