Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2000…df78 sports 644 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,047 (+1%) realized +$1,104 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%295W / 338L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days+$155
14 days+$102
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,038
other 4% −$207
crypto 0% −$232
politics 0% +$201
tech 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +18.3% +7.0% 38% 38% +3.9%
≤30d 125 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 40% +1.4%
≤90d 165 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 39% -4.1%
all 633 +7.0% -3.1% 47% 45% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 45% -7.5%
10% -12.4% 43% -16.3%
15% -20.9% 41% -24.4%
20% -28.6% 38% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$110 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$1,104
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses295 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)633 / 644
History coverage306d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $111 $94 −$16 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$4 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 33¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 291 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 +$4 +79%
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 +$7 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 −$21 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $21 +$29 +140%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24 Jun 24 $26 +$81 +315%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 +$61 +158%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $40 −$10 -26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 +$19 +124%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$30 +285%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $24 +$36 +150%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$129 +253%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $34 −$24 -71%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$135 +900%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 +$7 +226%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 +$39 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $41 −$24 -58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$54 +105%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 −$21 -91%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$9 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 33¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 26¢ $30 5h
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $0 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 9h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 55¢ $5 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $1 9h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $44 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 29¢ $15 29h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 31h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 31h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 31h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $38 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $32 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $21 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herze BUY 16¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24 BUY 24¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals A BUY 20¢ $26 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corn BUY 14¢ $10 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $36 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.42 · official $152.42 · 1745 history records