Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2000…3f97 crypto 611 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$183 (+7%) realized +$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%416W / 194L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$95
14 days+$113
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$17
world 27% +$98
politics 2% +$7
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +18.9% +7.6% 90% 58% +2.9%
≤30d 63 +19.8% +8.4% 92% 62% +3.6%
≤90d 610 +8.9% -1.5% 68% 52% -5.0%
all 610 +8.9% -1.5% 68% 52% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 52% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 33% -14.0%
15% -19.5% 20% -22.4%
20% -27.4% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses416 / 194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)610 / 611
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 45¢ 47¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $79 +$7 +8%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 19 $23 +$8 +36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $18 +$1 +7%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $8 $0 +5%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 18 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $19 +$6 +32%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +125%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $28 +$3 +10%
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $56 +$6 +11%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $2 8m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $3 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 64¢ $6 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 56¢ $5 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $4 2h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $3 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 95¢ $3 9h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 88¢ $1 13h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 82¢ $3 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 14h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 14h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $0 14h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 14h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 14h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 15h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $5 15h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $4 15h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 15h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 3500 history records