Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1ffc…ac09 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$287 (-3%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate83%49W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$77
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$2
other 38% +$12
politics 13% −$234
tech 5% +$1
world 4% −$64
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -15.9% -23.9% 80% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 7% -12.4%
all 59 -7.5% -16.3% 83% 5% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 5% -12.7%
10% -24.3% 5% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 5% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$37 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses49 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage619d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $145 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $270 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $96 −$78 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $248 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $144 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $44 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, May 22 $280 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 08 $190 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $220 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 15 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Solana dip to $40 March 16-22? Apr 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 15 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $305 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Feb 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 08 $218 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 27 $350 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 04 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $175 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Dec 16 $350 +$4 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Dec 01 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in October 2025? Nov 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 01 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 23? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 23? Oct 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 27 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $260 on October 13? Oct 22 $175 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5000 on August 24 at 4PM E Aug 24 $150 −$9 -6%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 24 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 13? Aug 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 12 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Jul 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 20 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 20 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 11 $78 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? Apr 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 20 $350 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $145 1h
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $18 8d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $248 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $144 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 32d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, BUY No 100¢ $280 45d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $44 45d
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 63d
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 63d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $41 69d
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 69d
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 69d
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 95d
Will Solana dip to $40 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $45 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $277 108d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 115d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 134d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $218 147d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $350 169d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $12 169d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $160 188d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $175 188d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $354 188d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $350 203d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $15 203d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $320 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.72 · official $274.72 (match) · 128 history records