Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1ffa…cf4f other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
world 29% −$4
crypto 15% +$1
politics 8% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 0% -10.3%
all 39 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage448d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $57 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $42 −$3 -7%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -3%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $9 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $11 $0 -4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $9 $0 +2%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $39 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $29 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $22 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $18 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $20 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $32 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $7 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $6 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 42¢ $39 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 45¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records