Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1ff8…5e5d sports 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized −$106 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%128W / 83L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,214per market
Trades / day88.9pace
Fees−$2,866est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$949
7 days−$25,262
14 days−$6,937
30 days−$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$603
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 50% -34.8%
≤30d 211 +4.8% -5.1% 61% 61% -9.8%
≤90d 211 +4.8% -5.1% 61% 61% -9.8%
all 211 +4.8% -5.1% 61% 61% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 61% -9.8%
10% -14.2% 56% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 46% -26.3%
20% -30.1% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,629) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$752 vs −$1,169 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses128 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,866
Open positions3
Markets (closed)211 / 214
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,214
Trades / day88.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 74¢ 95¢ $357 $458 +$101 (+28%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 80¢ 100¢ $334 $416 +$82 (+24%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $233 +$341 +146%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $233 +$209 +90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $399 +$459 +115%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $288 +$157 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $320 −$316 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $228 +$99 +44%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,706 +$1,383 +81%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $383 −$377 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$198 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $531 +$125 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,399 +$314 +22%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $81 −$49 -60%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $227 −$226 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $84 −$83 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $575 −$574 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $860 +$484 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $928 +$444 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $921 +$993 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $768 −$762 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $948 −$939 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $376 −$370 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,845 +$435 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7,035 −$6,995 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,618 −$4,592 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $429 −$424 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10,123 +$6,826 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $6,889 −$6,814 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,289 +$3,986 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6,942 −$6,835 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,883 −$6,844 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $265 −$262 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,961 +$2,408 +61%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $888 +$796 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,861 −$4,841 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $756 −$740 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2,022 −$1,992 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $954 −$954 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,038 −$2,018 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $221 −$216 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $337 −$331 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,218 −$1,200 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1,800 +$641 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,344 +$679 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $513 +$967 +188%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $431 +$461 +107%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $892 +$858 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,038 +$2,072 +102%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $591 +$304 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,980 −$1,961 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 87¢ $5 16m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 88¢ $23 17m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 83¢ $60 18m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 84¢ $17 19m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $17 20m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $25 21m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $28 23m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $16 23m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $14 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $10 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $7 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $5 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $11 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $1 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $9 26m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $11 27m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $16 28m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $8 28m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $13 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $3 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $8 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $4 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $21 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $2 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $18 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $4 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $1 29m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 80¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 80¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.49 · official $1,077.46 (match) · 2243 history records