Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1ff8…fa9c crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+6%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$76
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$4
other 14% +$45
sports 12% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.1% -59.4% 25% 25% -44.4%
≤30d 20 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 50% -7.1%
≤90d 20 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 50% -7.1%
all 20 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 50% -7.1%
10% -16.0% 50% -16.0%
15% -24.1% 40% -24.1%
20% -31.5% 30% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage17d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $53 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $43 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 29 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$13 -24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$33 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$21 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $30 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $18 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $27 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $40 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $53 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $22 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $42 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $20 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $20 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records