Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1ff5…46a2
sports · 158 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$120 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses79 / 77
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage112d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 55¢ 100¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+82%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner G2 66¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 79¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs Fake do Biru 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Aurora Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 69¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 72¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport - Map 1 Winner Nemiga 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport - Map 2 Winner AaB Esport 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$8 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$15 +133%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$14 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 −$8 -89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$10 -88%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$5 -48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$7 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 +$6 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$12 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$10 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $13 +$7 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$16 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - CCT South America Serie May 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Master May 09 $1 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Galorys - Map 1 Winner May 09 $4 −$3 -72%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 09 $12 −$9 -81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner May 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $12 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $12 +$9 +76%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 07 $8 +$4 +46%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport - Map 2 Winner May 07 $9 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport - Map 1 Winner May 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 07 $10 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 07 $10 −$5 -54%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series # May 05 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $25 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $20 −$6 -29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$116
other 7% −$1
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $12 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $16 29h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $15 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 8¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $9 34h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $11 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $11 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 4¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $11 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $14 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 29¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 87¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 3¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 58¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $11 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.0% -19.4% 48% 48% -13.8%
≤30d 26 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 129 -17.7% -25.6% 47% 46% -19.6%
all 156 -12.1% -20.5% 51% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 50% -17.9%
10% -28.1% 44% -25.7%
15% -35.0% 40% -32.9%
20% -41.4% 25% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.41 · official $39.41 (match) · 341 history records