Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1ff3…eb39 world 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,395 (+6%) realized +$2,472 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%94W / 44L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days+$361
14 days+$389
30 days+$1,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1,562
politics 29% −$213
other 19% +$838
sports 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$28
economics 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +89.5% +71.4% 60% 60% -0.1%
≤30d 41 +20.3% +8.8% 66% 41% -1.3%
≤90d 87 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 41% -0.2%
all 138 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 42% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 42% -3.0%
10% -9.8% 25% -12.3%
15% -18.6% 17% -20.8%
20% -26.5% 13% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$62 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$3,359
Realized+$2,472
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses94 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)138 / 160
History coverage147d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $1,063 $995 −$68 (-6%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $888 $896 +$8 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $690 $725 +$35 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $229 $206 −$24 (-10%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 90¢ 97¢ $162 $174 +$12 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 83¢ 91¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 78¢ 82¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $62 $3 −$59 (-95%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $154 +$92 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$51 +186%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$34 +265%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $47 +$135 +291%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $212 −$21 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $2,371 −$67 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $116 −$9 -8%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 09 $513 +$144 +28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $54 −$9 -16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Jun 07 $90 +$6 +6%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 06 $43 +$6 +14%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 06 $203 +$24 +12%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 01 $54 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $16 −$1 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $71 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +9%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $340 −$12 -4%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $6 $0 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $542 +$699 +129%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $1,341 −$152 -11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $633 +$308 +49%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? May 30 $89 −$89 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? May 30 $207 −$107 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 30 $151 +$19 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $299 +$47 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $568 +$73 +13%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 30 $146 +$27 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,220 +$49 +4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 28 $27 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $753 −$138 -18%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 23 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? May 21 $136 +$3 +2%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $238 +$27 +11%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $176 −$145 -82%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 13 $114 +$18 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,090 +$87 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $258 +$7 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $276 −$96 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $32 +$4 +11%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 10 $90 +$9 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $19 −$15 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY No 90¢ $81 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $246 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $78 24h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $53 29h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $2 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 30h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $2 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 30h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $31 31h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $1 31h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $8 43h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $24 43h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $16 44h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 44h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 44h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $191 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $260 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 82¢ $300 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,358.61 · official $3,358.61 (match) · 1965 history records