Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1ff1…4fe0 crypto 2265 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-11%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%27W / 499L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$56
weather 32% +$9
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.7% +9.2% 57% 43% +8.6%
≤30d 526 -10.4% -18.9% 5% 5% +4.8%
≤90d 526 -10.4% -18.9% 5% 5% +4.8%
all 526 -10.4% -18.9% 5% 5% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 5% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 5% -5.2%
15% -33.7% 5% -14.4%
20% -40.2% 5% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +75% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×62.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses27 / 499
Open positions4
Markets (closed)526 / 2265
History coverage18d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 88¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $0 +$3 +6900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 59¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 44¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 53¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 45¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $13.84 (match) · 2532 history records