Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1fee…ed5e
politics · 56 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
+$198,137 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$111,128 · open +$72,173
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$343,085
Realized+$111,128
Unrealized+$72,173
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)36 / 56
History coverage78d
Avg bet$17,293
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 20 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45,195
14 days+$45,104
30 days+$118,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 96¢ $122,415 $195,400 +$72,985 (+60%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 97¢ $35,307 $41,823 +$6,515 (+18%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 44¢ $21,331 $20,362 −$969 (-5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 72¢ 99¢ $12,541 $17,182 +$4,642 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $13,013 $16,654 +$3,642 (+28%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 79¢ 81¢ $15,279 $15,760 +$482 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $10,159 $10,609 +$450 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 79¢ 82¢ $9,250 $9,660 +$410 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $4,453 $6,396 +$1,943 (+44%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $2,854 $2,641 −$213 (-7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 41¢ 89¢ $1,073 $2,342 +$1,269 (+118%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 44¢ $2,301 $2,178 −$122 (-5%)
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 69¢ 100¢ $1,257 $1,812 +$555 (+44%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $7,900 $124 −$7,775 (-98%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? No 71¢ $6,716 $89 −$6,627 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 62¢ $713 $17 −$696 (-98%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $769 $12 −$756 (-98%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 10¢ $43 $10 −$33 (-76%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $702 $6 −$696 (-99%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 70¢ $296 $4 −$292 (-99%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-78%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? Yes $39 $1 −$38 (-98%)
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? Yes $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Yes $688 $0 −$688 (-100%)
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? Yes 15¢ $892 $0 −$892 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $462 +$500 +108%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $5,215 +$16,221 +311%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $8,570 +$24,655 +288%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $229 +$46 +20%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $313 +$326 +104%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 08 $209 +$185 +88%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 08 $87 +$763 +879%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $1,269 +$555 +44%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $4,507 +$1,943 +43%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 03 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $27,522 +$3,551 +13%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $31,041 +$3,223 +10%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 16 $8,039 +$8,522 +106%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? May 16 $12,326 +$13,956 +113%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $15,880 +$14,335 +90%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $27,776 +$10,844 +39%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Ana May 15 $82 +$17 +21%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and May 15 $1,364 +$285 +21%
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 14 $5,932 +$9,739 +164%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 14 $8,341 +$9,067 +109%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $30,869 +$1,157 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $181,977 +$15,034 +8%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 23 $688 −$688 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $33,328 −$32,611 -98%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? Apr 21 $896 −$892 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 16 $87,559 +$4,071 +5%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 14 $23,490 +$1,598 +7%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4,211 −$2,127 -50%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $8,907 −$8,059 -90%
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $44,112 +$6,901 +16%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $44,677 +$8,317 +19%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 70% +$172,371
world 20% +$18,676
other 9% −$17,485
economics 1% +$9,739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $2,675 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $57 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $260 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $59 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $30 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $273 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $24 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $7 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,783 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $456 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $80 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $656 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $36 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $71 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $160 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $437 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,065 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $38 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $85 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $70 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $1,101 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $48 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $536 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $128 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $217 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 86¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +209.6% +180.1% 100% 100% +187.1%
≤30d 20 +123.7% +102.4% 95% 90% +57.9%
≤90d 36 +47.4% +33.4% 72% 58% +7.6%
all 36 +47.4% +33.4% 72% 58% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.4% 58% +7.6%
10% +20.6% 39% -2.7%
15% ← realistic here +9.0% 39% -12.1%
20% -1.7% 31% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343,084.51 · official $343,086.44 (match) · 2015 history records