Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fee…3446 crypto 637 markets active 11h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-6%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate59%373W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$66
crypto 34% −$23
politics 12% −$3
other 11% −$18
world 8% −$3
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -4.6% -13.6% 69% 44% -13.7%
≤30d 472 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 30% -13.9%
≤90d 611 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 29% -17.7%
all 635 -9.9% -18.5% 59% 28% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 28% -16.0%
10% -26.3% 13% -24.0%
15% -33.4% 6% -31.3%
20% -40.0% 5% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses373 / 262
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)635 / 637
History coverage134d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 1552 history records