Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fed…ec20 politics 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 50L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 20% −$12
other 9% −$4
sports 2% +$74
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.7% 13% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 50 +2.2% -7.6% 20% 14% -7.8%
all 63 +1.6% -8.1% 21% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 11% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 11% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage592d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $255 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $99 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $12 +$8 +72%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $9 +$6 +59%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5 Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $43 +$1 +2%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 02 $20 +$32 +156%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $23 +$33 +144%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $31 +$18 +59%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 27 $19 +$28 +144%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 59m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $92 38h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $10 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 11d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 26d
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 28d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $122 29d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $122 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.55 · official $117.55 (match) · 275 history records