Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1feb…92b7 crypto 509 markets active 1h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,714 (-9%) realized −$3,714 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%255W / 252L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$4,062
sports 4% +$535
other 2% −$274
politics 1% −$209
tech 0% −$170
economics 0% −$11
culture 0% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% -12.8%
≤30d 69 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 43% -24.3%
≤90d 145 -45.6% -50.8% 28% 27% -68.5%
all 507 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 48% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 48% -18.4%
10% -21.5% 46% -26.2%
15% -29.1% 43% -33.4%
20% -36.0% 42% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$74 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses255 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)507 / 509
History coverage696d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 507 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $83 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $71 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$46 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$91 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$75 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $139 −$137 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 +$84 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $78 +$67 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $155 +$84 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $36 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $80 56m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $80 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 35¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $68 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $143 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $27 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $139 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $78.99 · 2968 history records