Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fe8…6e25 sports 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,258 (+4%) realized +$1,037 · open +$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate69%81W / 36L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days+$608
14 days−$1,117
30 days+$808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$83
weather 32% −$1,316
other 12% +$856
sports 12% +$1,334
politics 6% +$357
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.9% -6.9% 96% 13% -5.2%
≤30d 36 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 19% -6.5%
≤90d 103 -8.3% -17.1% 69% 31% -5.9%
all 117 -7.7% -16.5% 69% 30% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 30% -5.9%
10% -24.5% 22% -14.9%
15% -31.8% 18% -23.1%
20% -38.5% 16% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$93 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$3,529
Realized+$1,037
Unrealized+$221
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses81 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage102d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $1,783 $1,955 +$171 (+10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $478 $475 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $376 $389 +$13 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $348 $378 +$30 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $323 $332 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $995 +$57 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $132 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $458 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $169 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $642 +$38 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $404 +$23 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $477 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $181 +$16 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $139 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $400 +$56 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $758 +$33 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $310 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $655 +$51 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $775 +$42 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,096 +$227 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $536 +$35 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $394 +$28 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $609 +$43 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,307 +$299 +23%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $521 +$23 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $1,173 +$89 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $749 −$749 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $1,116 +$254 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,336 −$1,259 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $682 +$29 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $603 +$103 +17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,470 +$89 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,637 +$1,541 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 26 $617 +$31 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 25 $137 −$137 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $544 +$54 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $412 +$27 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1,538 +$55 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $368 +$163 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $164 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1,301 +$490 +38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $37 +$2 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 03 $19 $0 +1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 03 $24 −$2 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 03 $29 +$2 +6%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Capitals vs. Devils Apr 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $77 2m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $974 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $10 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $14 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $49 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $139 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $455 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $723 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $128 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $181 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,529.22 · official $3,528.51 (match) · 677 history records