Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fe3…305d crypto 735 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$212 (+5%) realized +$232 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%58W / 645L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$228
14 days−$110
30 days+$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$59
crypto 26% +$317
finance 19% −$163
sports 18% +$141
tech 3% −$104
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -82.9% -84.6% 9% 4% -57.1%
≤30d 211 -2.1% -11.4% 12% 11% +19.7%
≤90d 429 -19.4% -27.1% 10% 10% -0.1%
all 703 -43.0% -48.4% 8% 8% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 8% -16.7%
10% -53.3% 7% -24.7%
15% -57.8% 7% -32.0%
20% -62.0% 6% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$3 · ×11.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses58 / 645
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions18
Markets (closed)703 / 735
History coverage128d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+243%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-48%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 21 $38 +$6 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 21 $12 −$2 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 21 $132 +$8 +6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$21 +180%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $43 +$34 +79%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $14 +$68 +476%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 June 1-7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 June 1-7? Jun 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$11 +434%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $51 +$95 +185%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -94%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $360? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $69 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$10 +590%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$122 +3501%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$352 +3527%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $590? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 65¢ $140 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $116 25h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 38h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 38h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 38h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 38h
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 1¢ $2 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $133 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.18 · official $54.18 (match) · 2032 history records