Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fe1…6a76 crypto 601 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate74%445W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$51
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -0.9% -10.3% 75% 75% -10.3%
≤30d 600 -1.4% -10.7% 74% 57% -10.8%
≤90d 600 -1.4% -10.7% 74% 57% -10.8%
all 600 -1.4% -10.7% 74% 57% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 57% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 54% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses445 / 155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)600 / 601
History coverage23d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 79¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.07 · official $3.26 (match) · 1336 history records