Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fe0…4b59 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$266 (-6%) realized −$356 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$390
14 days+$390
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$339
world 32% −$187
finance 14% −$616
politics 9% +$268
crypto 6% −$90
sports 4% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.9% +6.7% 83% 67% +14.2%
≤30d 11 -11.5% -20.0% 64% 45% +3.5%
≤90d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 54% +8.5%
all 23 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 48% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 48% -16.2%
10% -21.7% 43% -24.2%
15% -29.3% 35% -31.5%
20% -36.2% 35% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$136 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage137d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $464 $553 +$90 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 −$5 -16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$56 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $340 +$182 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $326 +$74 +23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 16 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 16 $426 +$81 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $101 −$98 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $37 +$23 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 19 $112 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $61 +$46 +75%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 29 $150 +$96 +64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 12 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 12 $110 −$110 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $194 +$186 +96%
Will Trump say "Zelenskyy" during the State of the Union address? Feb 26 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 26 $321 +$229 +71%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 25 $25 +$65 +257%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Feb 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 31 $425 −$425 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 31 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $233 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $233 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $24 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $204 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $244 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $326 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $101 23d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $23 24d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $77 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $96 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $6 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $37 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $116 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $40 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $63 29d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $21 29d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $99 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $49 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.11 · official $553.11 (match) · 98 history records