Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fdf…3b6c world 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,966 (+2%) realized +$1,709 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 69L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$718per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,090
7 days+$5,190
14 days+$5,190
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$475
sports 21% +$4,368
other 14% −$1,258
crypto 4% −$3,586
finance 4% +$1,435
politics 2% +$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.6% -5.4% 48% 48% +17.3%
≤30d 45 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 40% -8.9%
≤90d 93 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 39% -8.2%
all 111 +8.4% -2.0% 38% 37% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 37% -7.5%
10% -11.3% 32% -16.4%
15% -19.9% 32% -24.5%
20% -27.8% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$710) neutral
Persistence
early +21% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$543 vs −$308 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,082
Realized+$1,709
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage117d
Avg bet$718
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 100¢ $260 $524 +$264 (+101%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 55¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 −$21 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $710 +$682 +96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$124 -61%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $459 −$221 -48%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$404 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $505 −$468 -93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 −$400 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $325 +$347 +107%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $999 +$970 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$160 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $500 −$284 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1,090 +$634 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $6,394 +$3,061 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $1,638 +$687 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,127 −$35 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $407 −$400 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $359 −$229 -64%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $300 −$145 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 01 $355 +$886 +250%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,589 −$3,567 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3,737 +$2,851 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5,082 +$287 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $2,884 −$121 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $4,320 −$1,037 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $2,100 +$222 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 28 $2,082 −$427 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $4,067 −$2,997 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $2,979 −$1,014 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $5,357 −$577 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $1,163 +$619 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,712 −$853 -50%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $1,133 +$190 +17%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $690 −$331 -48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $200 −$122 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,510 +$1,075 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1,780 +$296 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $199 −$54 -27%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $60 −$18 -29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 18 $500 −$268 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $574 −$360 -63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $388 −$379 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $254 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $254 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $233 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $254 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $254 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $79 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $224 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $37 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $505 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $508 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $407 2d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $672 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $999 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $346 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,082.07 · official $1,082.15 (match) · 465 history records