Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fde…095b crypto 338 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,334 (-2%) realized −$2,334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate64%218W / 120L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,821
crypto 36% −$1,038
other 5% −$2,648
world 3% −$10
politics 1% −$500
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.8% +20.1% 100% 100% +20.1%
≤30d 1 +32.8% +20.1% 100% 100% +20.1%
≤90d 50 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 40% -12.4%
all 338 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 28% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 28% -11.7%
10% -25.3% 18% -20.1%
15% -32.5% 11% -27.8%
20% -39.1% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$96 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses218 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage160d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$16 +33%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $143 −$122 -86%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $20 −$12 -59%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $0 $0 -95%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $105 +$31 +29%
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuan Mar 31 $50 −$35 -70%
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu Mar 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 31 $20 −$17 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$6 +60%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Jay Clarke Mar 31 $30 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$3 +31%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Mar 31 $20 −$14 -68%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $90 +$4 +4%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Mar 31 $10 +$8 +83%
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5 Mar 31 $10 +$10 +96%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $122 +$28 +23%
Barletta: Duje Ajdukovic vs Lukas Neumayer Mar 30 $10 +$2 +19%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Stefan Haita vs Joel Schwaerzler Mar 30 $156 +$14 +9%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Gabriel Ghetu vs Jay Clarke Mar 30 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$4 +41%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $20 +$9 +43%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $40 +$3 +8%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $30 −$3 -10%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Mar 30 $20 −$3 -14%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $20 +$9 +45%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $65 +$17 +26%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $68 −$3 -5%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Ilya Ivashka vs Nicolai Budkov Kj Mar 29 $35 +$7 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 29 $30 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $65 +$1 +2%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 28 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $40 −$14 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $71 +$7 +9%
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $54 +$17 +31%
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Kimmer Coppejans Mar 28 $54 +$1 +1%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Mar 28 $154 −$100 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 2h
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 6¢ $23 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 3¢ $9 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 33¢ $50 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 33¢ $50 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 31¢ $10 82d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers SELL Cavaliers 17¢ $1 82d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers SELL Cavaliers 16¢ $7 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 59¢ $20 82d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $20 82d
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? SELL No 0¢ $0 82d
Jets vs. Blackhawks SELL Jets 76¢ $136 82d
Jets vs. Blackhawks BUY Jets 59¢ $105 82d
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY No 2¢ $0 82d
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuan SELL Mayar Sherif 21¢ $15 83d
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuan BUY Mayar Sherif 69¢ $50 83d
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu SELL Damir Dzumhur 100¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $16 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 83d
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu SELL Damir Dzumhur 92¢ $59 83d
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu BUY Damir Dzumhur 76¢ $50 83d
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu SELL Damir Dzumhur 77¢ $44 83d
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu BUY Damir Dzumhur 87¢ $50 83d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Jay Clarke SELL Jay Clarke 22¢ $1 83d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Jay Clarke SELL Jay Clarke 29¢ $11 83d
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 49¢ $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 854 history records