Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fda…7c1f other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$60
sports 42% +$90
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 46% -7.5%
≤30d 41 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 46% -7.5%
≤90d 41 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 46% -7.5%
all 41 -5.4% -14.4% 49% 46% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -7.5%
10% -22.6% 46% -16.4%
15% -30.1% 44% -24.4%
20% -36.9% 34% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $28 −$27 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $46 +$21 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $19 +$28 +146%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$8 +44%
John Yeboah: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$11 +71%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 +$14 +141%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +67%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$14 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +118%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $7 −$3 -36%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -20%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$10 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 35m
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $28 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $46 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $19 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $25 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 2d
John Yeboah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 81¢ $15 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 58¢ $10 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $10 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $10 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $10 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $26 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 96¢ $24 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.46 · official $20.46 (match) · 78 history records