Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fda…1fb9 politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%21W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$993per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$59
other 38% +$414
sports 14% −$325
culture 3% −$4
world 1% +$2
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 2% -9.0%
all 115 -1.3% -10.7% 18% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 13% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 11% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,527) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$11 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage132d
Avg bet$993
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $697 $699 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $246 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $361 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,106 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,105 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,337 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,625 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,175 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,946 −$7 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,099 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 23 $1,042 +$537 +52%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,091 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,794 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,395 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $927 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,475 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $3,048 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $477 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $496 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $2,114 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $303 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 3h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 6h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $361 28h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $361 32h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $481 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $482 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $373 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $374 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $353 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $354 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $303 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $303 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $697 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,162 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,450 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,453 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,584 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,587 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,474 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,476 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,562 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,563 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,612 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,614 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,618 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.39 · official $699.39 (match) · 422 history records