Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1fd8…330f crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$48
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 27% +6.1%
≤30d 11 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 27% +6.1%
≤90d 11 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 27% +6.1%
all 11 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 27% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 27% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 27% -4.0%
15% -30.3% 27% -13.3%
20% -37.1% 27% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$11 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$48 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$6 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $11 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $114 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records