Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fd8…7749 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,686 (+24%) realized +$25,479 · open +$2,207
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,539per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1,193est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,407
7 days+$28,964
14 days+$28,641
30 days+$26,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$15,666
other 48% +$13,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 47% +15.7%
≤30d 72 +1.6% -8.0% 44% 44% +12.5%
≤90d 72 +1.6% -8.0% 44% 44% +12.5%
all 72 +1.6% -8.0% 44% 44% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 44% +12.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 43% +1.7%
15% -24.9% 38% -8.1%
20% -32.2% 36% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,046) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,978 vs −$918 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$6,529
Realized+$25,479
Unrealized+$2,207
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,193
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,539
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 42¢ 69¢ $3,812 $6,214 +$2,403 (+63%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $306 −$194 (-39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,061 −$1,037 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,552 −$1,500 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,032 −$2,002 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $287 −$277 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,462 +$2,538 +103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,211 −$2,200 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9,988 +$1,401 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,713 +$5,287 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $556 +$144 +26%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $2,043 +$1,401 +69%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $182 −$176 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $517 −$500 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,594 −$2,533 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $515 −$500 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,090 +$2,360 +58%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $516 −$500 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $106 +$310 +293%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3,358 +$8,940 +266%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,839 −$5,810 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $609 −$600 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $514 +$518 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,692 +$856 +51%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $1,970 +$2,030 +103%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,554 −$1,680 -66%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,049 +$4,304 +141%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,046 +$1,463 +72%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,577 +$3,711 +144%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $413 −$400 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $588 −$571 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,078 +$2,361 +219%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $201 −$200 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $201 −$200 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $1,029 −$1,000 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,117 −$2,050 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $122 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $208 −$200 -96%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,053 +$1,927 +94%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,046 +$1,525 +74%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,032 −$1,000 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $431 −$416 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $207 −$200 -96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,034 +$3,420 +331%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,017 +$316 +31%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,027 +$1,298 +126%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,038 +$819 +40%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 21 $3,034 +$3,407 +112%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,106 −$1,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $2,097 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,819 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $38 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,023 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 10¢ $518 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $840 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 23¢ $1,033 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,030 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $287 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,148 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $2,462 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $2,211 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,085 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $4,472 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $3,016 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,465 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $3,234 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,528.67 · official $6,528.67 (match) · 450 history records