Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fd7…06fe world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% $0
other 12% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 23 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 9% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage486d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $48 −$5 -9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $89 +$4 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Dec 15 $9 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $8 $0 +4%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February Mar 04 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $48 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $48 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $16 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $29 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $32 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $9 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 36h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $22 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $11 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $11 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $45 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $35 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records