Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fd7…1fba crypto 378 markets active 16d ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1022 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%210W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1021.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$148
sports 2% −$3
other 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1022 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 378 +3.2% -6.7% 56% 47% -12.5%
≤90d 378 +3.2% -6.7% 56% 47% -12.5%
all 378 +3.2% -6.7% 56% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1021.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 47% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 37% -20.9%
15% -23.8% 25% -28.6%
20% -31.2% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses210 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)378 / 378
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1021.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 378 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$15 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$3 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$6 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$12 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$4 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $77 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $77 −$30 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records