Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fd6…d4a0 sports 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$406 (+10%) realized +$368 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%156W / 199L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$367
14 days+$451
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$463
other 11% −$41
politics 3% −$13
finance 3% +$31
world 2% −$24
weather 1% −$34
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +19.3% +7.9% 48% 47% +15.7%
≤30d 152 +9.0% -1.4% 44% 43% +8.5%
≤90d 341 +6.4% -3.7% 43% 40% -2.7%
all 355 +11.4% +0.8% 44% 41% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 41% -2.5%
10% -8.9% 39% -11.9%
15% -17.7% 39% -20.4%
20% -25.7% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$368
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses156 / 199
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions11
Markets (closed)355 / 366
History coverage94d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 44¢ 48¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers Dark Phoenix 69¢ 74¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 9¢ 69¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+688%)
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Arias/Poljak 38¢ 44¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar Romboli/Winegar 46¢ 50¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Laslo Djere 48¢ 50¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) SPARTA 18¢ 24¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+36%)
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Hokori 25¢ 28¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers Omnix 45¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 +$14 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 −$1 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $18 +$12 +65%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $16 +$14 +90%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$19 +86%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 +$43 +250%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $16 +$34 +216%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $7 +$10 +158%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$12 +55%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -92%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +61%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $16 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Game 5: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $25 +$35 +140%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Grevelius/Heinonen Jun 13 $14 +$16 +109%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $19 +$20 +106%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $85 +$72 +85%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $23 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$33 +40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $25 +$27 +104%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +40%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $13 +$24 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - B BUY Omnix 45¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Romboli/Winegar BUY Romboli/Winegar 46¢ $14 1h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 25¢ $8 1h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R BUY Dark Phoenix 69¢ $27 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $12 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $7 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $8 14h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 44¢ $10 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $8 14h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 18¢ $8 15h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $13 15h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 45¢ $10 15h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 56¢ $5 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ $5 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $18 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $9 18h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Arias/Poljak 38¢ $14 18h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 44¢ $21 18h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 47¢ $13 18h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 48¢ $7 18h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 48¢ $7 18h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski BUY Lehecka/Mensik 50¢ $5 18h
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY Top Esports Challenger 34¢ $14 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $28 18h
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY Top Esports Challenger 34¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 44¢ $22 19h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 64¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.42 · official $179.43 (match) · 924 history records