Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fd6…95e3 other 297 markets active 3d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33,494 (+12%) realized +$33,494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%109W / 188L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$938per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$2,057est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,678
14 days−$1,629
30 days−$2,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17,280
sports 49% +$46,954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -39.6% -45.3% 22% 22% -36.4%
≤30d 25 -17.3% -25.1% 36% 36% -29.3%
≤90d 297 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 36% +0.7%
all 297 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 36% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 36% +0.7%
10% -33.7% 35% -8.9%
15% -40.1% 31% -17.7%
20% -46.0% 28% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$751) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,114 vs −$488 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33,494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses109 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$2,057
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage78d
Avg bet$938
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $389 −$346 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$54 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $154 −$11 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,716 +$345 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,035 −$1,513 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$45 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $4 +$5 +114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $269 −$264 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $91 −$5 -6%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $205 −$18 -9%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $304 +$196 +65%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $442 −$142 -32%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $300 −$163 -54%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $547 −$540 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $203 +$222 +109%
Will National Bank of Egypt Club win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $304 +$241 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $596 +$311 +52%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $407 −$400 -98%
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $607 +$393 +65%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $306 −$299 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $356 −$350 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $101 −$99 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $603 +$262 +43%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $901 −$886 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $607 −$599 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,530 +$846 +55%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $869 −$264 -30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $1,046 −$119 -11%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $508 +$492 +97%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $608 −$600 -99%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $715 −$94 -13%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $204 −$200 -98%
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $101 −$99 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $658 +$408 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $670 +$510 +76%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $768 −$100 -13%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 06 $152 −$8 -6%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $203 −$9 -5%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $978 −$18 -2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2,569 −$1,767 -69%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $304 +$205 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $45 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $43 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $389 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $93 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $94 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $291 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $1,390 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $524 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $522 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $920 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $920 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $896 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $2,035 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $86 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $41 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $4 11d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 41¢ $86 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $187 23d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 22¢ $187 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $91 24d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 24d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 659 history records