Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fd2…21eb world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,917 (-53%) realized −$8,414 · open −$503
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%10W / 60L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$437
7 days−$726
14 days−$1,308
30 days−$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$8,485
other 18% −$460
crypto 2% +$99
sports 2% +$16
tech 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -59.7% -63.6% 12% 6% -55.1%
≤30d 17 -62.1% -65.7% 12% 6% -68.0%
≤90d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 9% -90.0%
all 70 -39.3% -45.1% 14% 11% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 11% -65.4%
10% -50.3% 9% -68.7%
15% -55.1% 9% -71.7%
20% -59.5% 9% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -74% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$158 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$2,410
Realized−$8,414
Unrealized−$503
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)70 / 81
History coverage159d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $500 $1,475 +$975 (+195%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $300 $399 +$99 (+33%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $268 −$32 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $220 $105 −$115 (-52%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $26 +$26 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $800 $22 −$778 (-97%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $600 $11 −$589 (-98%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-57%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $72 $7 −$65 (-91%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $431 +$8 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $170 −$166 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $51 +$227 +442%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $597 −$582 -98%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Apr 04 $251 −$251 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $415 −$415 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $252 −$252 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $200 −$200 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Apr 03 $224 −$224 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $760 −$760 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 27 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 26 $1 +$13 +1329%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Mar 25 $3 +$34 +1150%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026? Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Mar 15 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Mar 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Mar 15 $35 −$35 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 97¢ $143 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 97¢ $24 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 97¢ $215 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 97¢ $57 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $431 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $46 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 46h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 46h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 46h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $119 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $597 7d
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,409.80 · official $2,413.97 (match) · 250 history records