Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fce…6732 weather 848 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+1%) realized +$124 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%511W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$141
14 days−$351
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$198
sports 18% +$127
crypto 7% −$15
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 48% -12.7%
≤30d 336 -9.8% -18.4% 71% 39% -9.9%
≤90d 847 -3.1% -12.4% 60% 43% -9.8%
all 847 -3.1% -12.4% 60% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 43% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 26% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 21% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses511 / 336
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)847 / 848
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 847 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$27 -53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $132 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $101 +$78 +77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 +$17 +14%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $280 +$14 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $220 +$10 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $91 +$43 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $93 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$11 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $57 +$6 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $37 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $46 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $50 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $45 +$21 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $91 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $200 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $94 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $90 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $24 30m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $210 57m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $151 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $200 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $123 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $179 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $101 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $30 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $101 7h
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? SELL No 62¢ $3 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $120 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $120 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? SELL No 100¢ $294 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 95¢ $280 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $220 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $39 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.46 · official $99.46 (match) · 3500 history records