Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fce…a7c8 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized −$119 · open +$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$432
14 days+$32
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1,373
crypto 17% −$68
other 17% −$489
sports 15% −$295
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% +28.4%
≤30d 16 +26.3% +14.2% 38% 38% -26.0%
≤90d 27 +7.8% -2.5% 37% 37% -5.6%
all 28 +3.9% -6.0% 36% 36% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 36% -7.7%
10% -15.0% 32% -16.5%
15% -23.2% 25% -24.6%
20% -30.7% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$680) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$512 vs −$267 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$3,205
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$205
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage645d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,000 $3,205 +$205 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$104 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 +$523 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $473 +$59 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $328 +$437 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $46 +$281 +608%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $233 −$186 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$50 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $1,327 −$482 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $733 −$494 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $432 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $106 −$5 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,327 −$95 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $6,000 −$326 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 13 $400 +$319 +80%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 10 $4,000 −$818 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $3,420 −$120 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $4,110 +$2,947 +72%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $500 +$172 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 07 $680 +$205 +30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $110 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 06 $12 −$12 -93%
Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? Sep 10 $495 −$495 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $930 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $407 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $177 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $111 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $99 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $256 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $19 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,088 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $327 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,204.55 · official $3,204.55 (match) · 191 history records