Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fcd…724d sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$137 (+23%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$143
crypto 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.0% +8.6% 67% 67% +12.2%
≤30d 27 +20.0% +8.6% 67% 67% +12.2%
≤90d 27 +20.0% +8.6% 67% 67% +12.2%
all 27 +20.0% +8.6% 67% 67% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 67% +12.2%
10% -1.8% 59% +1.5%
15% -11.3% 52% -8.3%
20% -20.0% 48% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $24 +$16 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 15 $22 +$18 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $23 +$11 +46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $25 +$24 +95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $14 +$16 +109%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 +$15 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $21 +$19 +91%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $18 +$12 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $26 −$1 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $23 +$17 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $27 +$4 +14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 10 $22 +$18 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 09 $34 +$32 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $32 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 66¢ $39 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 23¢ $9 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $5 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $5 41h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 42h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $19 42h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $24 42h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY No 54¢ $22 42h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $37 42h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 69¢ $34 44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 99¢ $49 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $25 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 92¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.35 · official $56.35 (match) · 57 history records