Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fcc…701b weather 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,847 (-49%) realized −$3,884 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%321W / 322L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day71.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 38% +$122
world 33% +$198
other 12% +$56
politics 9% +$177
finance 4% +$60
tech 2% −$30
sports 1% −$18
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 382 +0.1% -9.4% 49% 47% -4.1%
≤30d 643 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 47% -3.7%
≤90d 643 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 47% -3.7%
all 643 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 47% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 47% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -12.9%
15% -25.5% 33% -21.3%
20% -32.8% 27% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,465
Realized−$3,884
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses321 / 322
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions126
Markets (closed)643 / 732
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 126 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $77 $208 +$131 (+171%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 82¢ $81 $91 +$10 (+12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 53¢ 83¢ $51 $79 +$28 (+56%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 25¢ 86¢ $20 $69 +$49 (+247%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 42¢ $70 $48 −$22 (-31%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 29¢ 39¢ $31 $42 +$11 (+35%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $31 $40 +$8 (+27%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 47¢ 58¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+24%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 69¢ 78¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 36¢ 32¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 50¢ 68¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 48¢ 99¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 20¢ 40¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+102%)
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 39¢ 95¢ $8 $19 +$11 (+144%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 52¢ 92¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 59¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 39¢ 63¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 56¢ 85¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? No 72¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? No 50¢ 68¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 77¢ 93¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 20? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -169%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in May? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +163%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$14 -49%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$15 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +74%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 +$1 +381%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 63¢ $7 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $3 57m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 40¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY No 80¢ $7 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $5 4h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 51¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 37¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,465.03 · official $1,462.13 (match) · 3500 history records