Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fcb…c253 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$211 (+12%) realized +$183 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate68%40W / 19L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$132
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$73
crypto 41% +$48
sports 10% +$48
politics 3% −$7
world 1% +$23
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 42% +0.6%
≤30d 59 +11.5% +0.9% 68% 44% +0.4%
≤90d 59 +11.5% +0.9% 68% 44% +0.4%
all 59 +11.5% +0.9% 68% 44% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 44% +0.4%
10% -8.8% 37% -9.2%
15% -17.6% 32% -18.0%
20% -25.7% 25% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses40 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)59 / 76
History coverage10d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 96¢ $13 $30 +$17 (+128%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 90¢ $5 $24 +$19 (+426%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-61%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$92 +225%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$8 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$27 +61%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$75 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$24 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$38 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$18 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$26 +248%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 +$40 +213%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +187%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $37 9h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $18 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 13h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 13h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $71 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $43 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $28 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 4d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.56 · official $344.56 (match) · 149 history records