Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1fc9…01e1 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$654 (-15%) realized −$253 · open −$401
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,355
other 20% −$180
crypto 1% −$67
politics 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-73.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -70.4% -73.2% 12% 6% -55.9%
≤30d 17 -70.4% -73.2% 12% 6% -55.9%
≤90d 17 -70.4% -73.2% 12% 6% -55.9%
all 17 -70.4% -73.2% 12% 6% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.2% 6% -55.9%
10% -75.8% 6% -60.1%
15% -78.1% 6% -64.0%
20% -80.2% 6% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$96 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,582
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$401
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage29d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $750 $661 −$89 (-12%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 28¢ $550 $402 −$148 (-27%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 28¢ 18¢ $383 $237 −$146 (-38%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 10¢ 8¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $132 −$18 -14%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $362 −$342 -94%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $479 −$434 -91%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $266 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $306 −$306 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $372 +$210 +56%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $123 −$24 -19%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $80 −$29 -37%
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential electio Jun 27 $25 −$24 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $211 14m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $107 14m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $582 15m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $115 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $114 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $580 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $133 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $212 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $132 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 19¢ $29 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $159 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 2¢ $45 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $275 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $333 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $266 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $479 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 14h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 11¢ $99 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $99 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $58 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $123 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $181 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $211 20h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 15¢ $107 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 20h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 20¢ $50 20h
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential electio SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $161 21h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 28¢ $80 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,581.51 · official $1,623.83 · 46 history records