Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fc4…7ae7 sports 725 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,109 (-11%) realized −$7,159 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%339W / 384L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$280
14 days−$437
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$5,553
sports 28% −$529
other 3% +$69
world 2% −$709
crypto 0% −$11
politics 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.3% -40.5% 39% 26% -18.6%
≤30d 166 -10.4% -19.0% 46% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 723 -18.0% -25.8% 47% 32% -19.4%
all 723 -18.0% -25.8% 47% 32% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 32% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 26% -27.1%
15% -39.4% 20% -34.1%
20% -45.4% 15% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$38 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$7,159
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses339 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions2
Markets (closed)723 / 725
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $211 $267 +$56 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 85¢ 82¢ $161 $155 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $114 −$105 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $138 +$27 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $669 −$65 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $689 −$71 -10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $282 +$41 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $58 +$64 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$13 -44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $122 −$28 -23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $44 +$16 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 −$33 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $362 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$22 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -92%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$8 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $75 +$25 +33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $265 −$264 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $123 −$35 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$29 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $135 +$61 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $23 +$7 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 07 $67 −$66 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $175 +$33 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $49 +$51 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $188 +$112 +60%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $19 +$11 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $81 +$37 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $153 +$26 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $11 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $70 26m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $77 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $41 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.38 · official $421.40 (match) · 3500 history records