Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fc2…61b6 crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%320W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 7% -9.1%
≤30d 337 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 337 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 8% -9.8%
all 337 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 8% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses320 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)337 / 338
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $0.68 (match) · 670 history records