Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fc1…af0f crypto 14 markets active 19d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$6
politics 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 64% -17.5%
≤90d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 64% -17.5%
all 14 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 64% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 64% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 43% -25.4%
15% -28.4% 29% -32.6%
20% -35.4% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $9 −$3 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $27 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 8¢ $6 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records