Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fbd…bbf7 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$35 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$43
sports 21% −$72
world 4% +$3
crypto 3% −$22
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +106.5% +86.8% 100% 100% +42.0%
≤30d 5 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 60% -10.9%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 49% -11.0%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 49% -11.0%
10% -18.3% 46% -19.5%
15% -26.2% 41% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 32% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage38d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 26¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 24¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 51¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 +$3 +135%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $92 −$91 -99%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $18 +$24 +133%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$8 +73%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLAST R6 May 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $16 −$16 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $35 +$25 +72%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 +$24 +158%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $30 −$26 -87%
Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $25 +$2 +10%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$18 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$14 +133%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $7 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 20m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 21m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $133 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 25¢ $133 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 202 BUY 27¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $82 14h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 26¢ $82 14h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $92 14h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 26¢ $92 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 BUY 38¢ $31 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $17 16d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 35d
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $43 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 35d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 35d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 36d
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLAST R6 SELL Twisted Minds 40¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.50 · official $598.96 (match) · 93 history records