trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? | No | 16¢ | 12¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-20%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? | No | 8¢ | 2¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-70%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? | Yes | 10¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-59%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? | No | 11¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-61%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-80%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$1 | +21% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? | Jun 11 | $12 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $15 | −$3 | -22% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $3 | −$2 | -47% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? | Jun 10 | $1 | +$1 | +53% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $25 | −$3 | -12% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $3 | −$1 | -32% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Jun 03 | $30 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 03 | $94 | −$5 | -5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 50% | 30% | -13.5% |
| ≤30d | 22 | +2.6% | -7.1% | 45% | 27% | -13.8% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +2.6% | -7.1% | 45% | 27% | -13.8% |
| all | 22 | +2.6% | -7.1% | 45% | 27% | -13.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -7.1% | 27% | -13.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -16.0% | 9% | -22.0% |
| 15% | -24.1% | 9% | -29.6% |
| 20% | -31.6% | 9% | -36.5% |